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Do you think the WNBA will do anything to capitalize on the NCAAW momentum?
8-Apr-24 7:45pm
#1
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

Most watched WNBA game ever had ~900k average viewers with 1.3M peak (game 4 of last year's finals).
Last nights Iowa vs South Carolina game had 18.6M average viewers with 24M peak.
The 2024 WNBA draft is looking like the equivalent of the 84/96/03 NBA drafts where half of the first round is full of "any other year they are a #1 pick" type players.
Clark and Reese are likely the biggest women's basketball rivalry ever, and they've played each other twice.
Next year Paige Bueckers will be coming and she's pretty and good.
8-Apr-24 8:10pm
#2
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

No. The WNBA has very little attachment unlike college basketball. Most people won't know about Reese once she's drafted. Clark likely could make more in college under NIL than she will in the WNBA. She should take a hard look at that big 3 offer.
8-Apr-24 8:37pm
#3
shadyfozzie
Triple Gold Good Trader

Maybe next year to see how Clark does in that atmosphere, but I think the luster will wear off
8-Apr-24 9:10pm
#4
Anxiouz
950 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader

The WNBA has some exceptional players and nobody is really watching. Clark is special and will draw more eyes for a bit I think, but I don't see her really changing things. Part of her appeal was the records she was breaking this past year. In the WNBA it's going to be several years before she would make that kind of news again, and by then I don't think people will be paying attention any more.
8-Apr-24 9:25pm
#5
Porksta
400 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally This user is on the site NOW (9 minutes ago)

Remember Ms. Triple Double from a few years ago (Ionescu)? I couldn't even tell you what team she is on or if she has made an All-Star appearance.
8-Apr-24 9:31pm
#6
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

She (Sabrina Ionescu) did a 3 point competition with Steph Curry this year during the NBA all-star weekend that I think was the most viewed part of all-star weekend IIRC. I know she missed basically all of her rookie season, I think she's been an all-star since then.
9-Apr-24 2:19pm
#7
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

What's really damning to the league is all the former stars bagging on Clark trying to downplay her collegiate accomplishments so as to not tarnish their own. It's stupid to intentionally sabotage the biggest potential growth of the league over jealousy.
11-Apr-24 3:06am
#8
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

So I honestly think WNBA is prepped for a breakthrough, though not at all close to what the NCAA numbers were, but compared to where they have been for 20+ years. Good news is I think the NCAA numbers were more about casual audiences liking a good story than it being any sort of attachment to college basketball or basketball in general. Now, in order for my predictions to be right, Clark needs to be like the women's LeBron. She needs to come out at an all-star level with clear visions of potential GOATness her rookie season.

WNBA has at least a few story lines going right now. Las Vegas is back to back champs looking to make a dynasty. For the first time in WNBA history, they have sold out their season ticket packages. NY Liberty have a stacked team, Breanna Stewart (NY) vs Aja Wilson(LV) might be the best current rivalry in the WNBA. Mercury can really push a "one more for Taurasi". And Griner has a story for the rest of her career... they just have to figure out how to make a giant black lesbian a relatable and sympathetic character. Seattle Storm made big free agent moves, though they aren't going to get any of the coveted rookies, but could be a serious contender. They traded their 4th spot for a 2026 pick and some scrub. Connecticut is also looking good. And I hate their name so much. Sun. Singular. Like a new paper. Not like the Phoenix Suns, which are plural. Each of their players is a star. But Connecticut, only a singular star. 1 sun.

And the WNBA really benefits from timing. The draft is 4/15, pre-season starts 5/3, regular season starts 5/14. This will still be fresh by then.

So, specifically what my prediction is and what I am thinking success looks like: In 2023, WNBA regular season average viewership was 505k regular season, WNBA on ABC games averaged 627k. 36M unique viewers, all-star game averaging 850k, total live attendance of 1,587,488 all numbers from here https://www.wnba.com...
I am predicting regular season viewership average of 750k, WNBA on ABC games average 1M. 40M unique viewers. All-star game averaging 1M, if Caitlin is in the all-star game and they like get Steph to do a 3 point contest with her they hit 2M during that segment. Live attendance, 1,650,000. Finals I am guessing at least 1.5M, but a decent chance of like 2.5M if it is a good series, like goes to game 6 or 7 and there have been at least a couple of good games in the series.

As I understand they have a number of TV deals expiring next 2 years. From what I've read, they currently make something like $60m for the broadcast rights that expire in 2025. Coming out of the 2023 season, the number they were shooting for in 2025 was $100m for the next TV rights deal. If they get to the numbers I think they will, that could easily be like $200m. If they only hit $100m, that still probably for the first time turns them profitable. Like $100M i bet gets NBA not subsidizing out of need (they might still technically spend some for cross brand advertising and the likes, but not the $10-20m/year like it is now). It probably still doesn't get chartered flights (estimated $25M/year). But it would get top salaries from like $250k up to like $400k. And would get more advertising, more more trainers and what not for each team. So improvements, but not at all what the players are wanting. $200m/year probably gets them chartered planes, the first $1M salary and the likes. But this is all me talking out of my ass and not part of my official prediction.
11-Apr-24 3:14am
#9
DrizzDrizzDrizz
Double Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally Croatia

I dont know but I recently watched extended highlights of some of the NCAA tournament as well as some random Caitlyn Clark videos, and I was blown away how good she is. Not just her, overall the quality was pretty high and pleasantly surprised me, but she’s box office for sure
11-Apr-24 7:29am
#10
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

Well, the WNBA is banking on Clark. It's not often the tram picking first gets the most televised games. She better get used to being the villain amongst her cohorts, cause the claws are staying out.
11-Apr-24 10:50am
#11
BlueJava


Some of the dudes that play in the WNBA have very attractive girlfriends/wives...
11-Apr-24 7:29pm
#12
DrizzDrizzDrizz
Double Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally Croatia

BlueJava wrote:
Some of the dudes that play in the WNBA have very attractive girlfriends/wives...
what
11-Apr-24 8:45pm
#13
Porksta
400 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally This user is on the site NOW (9 minutes ago)

Lol
17-Apr-24 1:05am
#14
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

WNBA draft had 2.4M viewers, ~1/2 as many as the NBA draft. That is a 307% increase from 2023 which had 572k viewers (and was the second most viewed draft, after 2004 with 601k viewers).

Been trying to familiarize myself with the rest of this class.
Brink and Jackson will both do well. LA will be a good team in a few years, especially if either of them get a bit better at 3s. Both have potential.

Cardoso I think is going to bust. She moves ok off ball, and she's a sneaky offensive rebounder. No post game, defense didn't seem very good, seemed to me she was getting away with a lot of fouls in the tournament by not going straight up and down on block attempts. Lots of contact she initiated I felt. She's the Sam Bowie of the draft. Reese, I dunno. I feel like she could either rely a lot on athleticism for her game, and lose that advantage in the WNBA / already be past her quickest physically. If she remains quicker than the opponent and able to just beat her opponent off the dribble, I think she will end up really good. She has a solid post game, good defense.

Alissa Pili is interesting. She dominated Cardoso regular season in a losing effort. If this is the 84 Draft, she's Charles Barkley. She's a big Samoan girl that can move her weight around. If she's able to shoot above tall defenders more skilled than Cardoso, she'll do well.
17-Apr-24 1:15am
#15
longhornsk57
Quadruple Gold Good Trader

The issue with the WNBA is the skills are so much worse than even high school basketball, it can never really gain traction.

That's cool that Clark was a good college player but most people just don't want to watch sports at not even close to the highest level, it sort of just becomes a bit of a charity.

If they get a player that can straight dominate the WNBA like Clark did in college then you might get some interest sort of like when Rhonda Rousey was unstoppable in MMA, but otherwise I still don't even see the league being solvent let alone popular. I think it loses like $10M per year?

It's just so slow and unathletic compared to the mens' side. I'd watch like the WNBA champs play against some high school men's state champs though like for a fun, something like that might be cool.
17-Apr-24 11:11am
#16
sa330206
500 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader

I truly dont understand the complaints I keep hearing about WNBA salaries being so low. It's all about supply/demand. IIRC , the NBA has had to supplement the WNBA with income since inception (maybe this has changed, I dont know?). But if the sport doesnt make any money, how can they pay the players more? I hear people say it's sexist, etc which is just nonsense. If, for example, the NBA brings in billions a year while the WNBA loses money - it's just common sense they wont make huge salaries. If I had some super amazing skill but it made no money, how could I demand that I be paid millions of dollars?
17-Apr-24 11:16am
#17
longhornsk57
Quadruple Gold Good Trader

It's just a loud minority who say that. I think almost everyone agrees if anything they're overpaid considering they don't generate a profit for their own league.
17-Apr-24 11:16am
#18
Porksta
400 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally This user is on the site NOW (9 minutes ago)

And the WNBA is looking at expanding... seriously?
17-Apr-24 2:34pm
#19
benstylus
GameTZ Gold Subscriber GameTZ Full Moderator 550 Trade Quintuple Gold Good Trader Gold Global Trader (9) Has Written 26 Reviews

sa330206 wrote:
I truly dont understand the complaints I keep hearing about WNBA salaries being so low. It's all about supply/demand. IIRC , the NBA has had to supplement the WNBA with income since inception (maybe this has changed, I dont know?). But if the sport doesnt make any money, how can they pay the players more? I hear people say it's sexist, etc which is just nonsense. If, for example, the NBA brings in billions a year while the WNBA loses money - it's just common sense they wont make huge salaries. If I had some super amazing skill but it made no money, how could I demand that I be paid millions of dollars?
I think it's more about the establishment of men's sports being so entrenched in our nation's culture. The NBA has been around for close to 80 years at this point, before most if not all of the userson this site were born. By contrast, many of us were already adults by the time the WNBA played their first game in 1997.

Outside of the tech world, it's a pretty rare and extraordinary tale when the upstart nobody completely upends the establishment.

In the sports world it takes Saudi Oil kind of money to even make a dent.

17-Apr-24 3:19pm
#20
longhornsk57
Quadruple Gold Good Trader

Not really, I mean the UFC is a latecomer as well as other things Cube's The Big Three, all of which do better financially than the WNBA.

People will watch anything entertaining new or old, problem is the WNBA just lacks the talent of men's sports. You can't put a product that almost nobody watches where the competition is worse than high school boys and just subsidize it with zero profit and expect that it will succeed.

The product is the problem not anything else.

See also how well women's national soccer team does and women's UFC as well, those are sports where the product also isn't as good as the men's side but compelling enough to get interest. WNBA is just straight up boring with no national pride implications.
17-Apr-24 4:51pm
#21
bumsplikity
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

I've started becoming more interested in Women's basketball soley because the NBA is kind of becoming a freakshow. NBA players are getting taller on average, and i've started finding some of the games a bit boring to watch. When every player on the court is a giant and every single player is a threat from the three point line, alot of the nuance and "art" of the game gets lost.

Take Wemby for example. That dude is so tall that he can dunk without jumping. Watching him play is fascinating, for sure, but as more and more players get over the 7 foot mark, the way the game works is changing in a way that I personally don't enjoy.

Women's basketball is more about the fundamentals, because the athletes aren't as physically gifted. I think there is room for people who miss the older, more team oriented style of basketball to gain traction.

I also think that the newer stars of the Women's game like Clark could inspire more women to watch the WNBA, which is really the demographic that they are failing to capture.

It will probably never reach the level of the NBA, but I do think there is merit in having the WNBA continue to be a thing, if nothing else to encourage young girls to keep playing a sport they love.
17-Apr-24 5:09pm
#22
longhornsk57
Quadruple Gold Good Trader

Wemby is a very interesting example to bring up since that dude can handle, shoot, assist and do it all having been an international player from France, and actually he's an amazing passer with great fundamentals and art.

People bring up "fundamentals" but I mean I don't see the WNBA have great handles or amazing passing. They don't dunk because they can't and the low scores isn't amazing defense it's lack of skill. Which fundamentals are better?

Having said that if you feel there's more parity in the WNBA or something like that I can understand it and I think they do have a few fans, if Clark can actually dominate the WNBA they may see an uptick, but she would need lik LeBron levels over the competition to do that and I'm not sure she's up for that. Would be cool though to see.
17-Apr-24 6:01pm
#23
bumsplikity
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

Yeah Wemby is amazing, but will the NBA be interesting when each team has a couple of Wembys? Kevin Durant is another example. Great player, but boring as fudge to watch, because he is just so tall that he can shoot over anyone. I personally think that as the average height of the NBA player grows, the game will become less fun to watch. As more and more "unicorns" come into the league, the game is going to become boring because the goal is staying at 10 ft.

In fairness, the WNBA games are also 8 minutes shorter. If you look at points per minute scored, the WNBA isn't that far off the NBA.

The NBA is largely driven by it's superstars, so I think there is a chance Clark and some of the other up and coming Women's players get popular enough to move the needle. Caityln Clark is far and away the most popular female basketball player of all time, so I could see some of that bolstering the WNBA.

Of course, the WNBA isn't going to rival the NBA ever in terms of viewership, but I think there is a chance CC at least brings some additional eyes to the sport.
18-Apr-24 2:54pm
#24
BlueJava


WNBA is just as trash as the NBA .. Women sports are poyat the college level because of the coaching, passing, teamwork, slashing, off the ball screens, etc.... The WNBA is trash because all that goes away with the egos, logo shots, trying to dunk , tattoos and everything else they do to mimic MEN ... Clark isn't the savior you all hope for and in fact by this time next year you won't remember her... The same girls have to play overseas cause nobody attends WNBA games and nobody is going to start... When Clark starts rocking tats and holding her wife's hand she will be forgotten by the masses like Griner...
19-Apr-24 2:43am
#25
DrizzDrizzDrizz
Double Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally Croatia

what’s wrong with tattoos?
19-Apr-24 11:46am
#26
lpeters82
Gold Good Trader

.... and "holding her wife's hand"?
19-Apr-24 11:48am
#27
lpeters82
Gold Good Trader

PS: I used to collect sports cards growing up. It was something my dad and I did together. The only newer cards I've purchased since then have been from non-major sports (mostly Formula 1) and women's athletics. I recently picked up my first WNBA card, which was a graded rookie card of A'ja Wilson.
19-Apr-24 12:53pm
#28
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

https://www.espn.com...


I wonder how it will be for Clark who has a boyfriend and likely won't go the route of trying to look and act like a man as BJ said. Wiggins has backed off some on her claims, but it didn't come out of no where.

You've already heard many former stars' jealously of Clark, and I'm sure there will be many current players who try to diminish or make an example of her through hard fouls as Candice stated. Absolute stupidity though as CC is one person who could elevate the status of the WNBA immensely, instead a portion of the league will likely go the route of gradeschool girls.
19-Apr-24 9:07pm
#29
BlueJava


These are professional athletes, Not girls going to class all day... She will get humbled... Look up Glenn "Big Dogg" Rice and that he averaged 40 ppg in college but didn't achieve anything close to that in the NBA and in fact wasn't even a top 3 player of his own draft...Everyone who thinks CC is Jordan with a vag are people who don't follow the sport..
19-Apr-24 9:13pm
#30
Feeb
GameTZ Subscriber Quadruple Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally This user is on the site NOW (9 minutes ago)

She’s not getting humbled by 40 year old women with robo knees. I think the opposite will likely happen.
19-Apr-24 9:40pm
#31
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

BlueJava wrote:
These are professional athletes, Not girls going to class all day... She will get humbled... Look up Glenn "Big Dogg" Rice and that he averaged 40 ppg in college but didn't achieve anything close to that in the NBA and in fact wasn't even a top 3 player of his own draft...Everyone who thinks CC is Jordan with a vag are people who don't follow the sport..


???

I don't understand this take. Jordan didn't go 1 or 2. Clark isn't Jordan. They are completely different players in their respective leagues. Clark's ceiling in the WNBA isn't the equivalent of Jordan at this point, it's Curry. Odds of her achieving that rests on many factors and is daunting. The fact the some of the face of the league are hindering that publicity is shockingly short sited for them.
19-Apr-24 10:17pm
#32
BlueJava


Curry!!!

You are correct... These players (all of them) idolize Curry and play like him.. I hope you all are just as excited for JuJu from USC who set scoring records as a freshman and will eclipse CC records as long as she stays healthy... Many more girls will setting new scoring records with the pace of the game now and how it's offense driven... I'm probably going over many heads here because you probably turned on college basketball because FOX told you the Messiah has arrived.
19-Apr-24 10:21pm
#33
BlueJava


Whoever put her in heels for the draft should be arrested cause I can't unsee that...See you guys at the game next season 🤣🤣...
19-Apr-24 10:46pm
#34
Feeb
GameTZ Subscriber Quadruple Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally This user is on the site NOW (9 minutes ago)

BlueJava wrote:
Curry!!! You are correct... These players (all of them) idolize Curry and play like him.. I hope you all are just as excited for JuJu from USC who set scoring records as a freshman and will eclipse CC records as long as she stays healthy... Many more girls will setting new scoring records with the pace of the game now and how it's offense driven... I'm probably going over many heads here because you probably turned on college basketball because FOX told you the Messiah has arrived.
Oh. This is a political thing I guess? Makes sense how everyone is absolutely batcrap brainwashed over this.
8-May-24 8:38pm
#35
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

So at least early indicators are ticket sales are way way up, viewership is much higher than anticipated even for non-Caitlin teams, and the league is already getting chartered air travel, something that will cost them $25M a year, without any concessions or anything from the players. I think its fair to say the league is turning a profit and is far exceeding any early expectations the league had.
WNBA is still blowing a few things, like not having their app ready for games they claimed it was going to be up for, but I think the big thing is successfully driving viewership to broadcast, that's still where he big money is.
9-May-24 2:11am
#36
DrizzDrizzDrizz
Double Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally Croatia

I kind of expected the NBA league pass to include WNBA too, they have a separate app/subscription?
9-May-24 6:56am
#37
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

Chad wrote:
So at least early indicators are ticket sales are way way up, viewership is much higher than anticipated even for non-Caitlin teams, and the league is already getting chartered air travel, something that will cost them $25M a year, without any concessions or anything from the players. I think its fair to say the league is turning a profit and is far exceeding any early expectations the league had...

In 20+ years the league has never turned a profit. What do the players have to concede? The league is subsidized by the NBA. Their best players play overseas to boost their income. Hopefully Clark can change this for the sake of their league.
9-May-24 2:56pm
#38
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

I seriously doubt they didn't turn a profit last year. The owners just have no incentive to publicize that as they benefit from people arguing on their behalf. If they didn't earn a profit last year that means their operating expenses have tripled since 2018 which I don't see where it could have gone. The NBA hasn't made a statement on subsidizing in 6 years, people just keep reference the same quote.
9-May-24 2:59pm
#39
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

DrizzDrizzDrizz wrote:
I kind of expected the NBA league pass to include WNBA too, they have a separate app/subscription?
different app
9-May-24 3:17pm
#40
KCPenguins
GameTZ Subscriber Gold Good Trader

Chad wrote:
I seriously doubt they didn't turn a profit last year. The owners just have no incentive to publicize that as they benefit from people arguing on their behalf. If they didn't earn a profit last year that means their operating expenses have tripled since 2018 which I don't see where it could have gone. The NBA hasn't made a statement on subsidizing in 6 years, people just keep reference the same quote.

The article I read was dated 2020, so no profit in ~24 years.
11-May-24 12:37am
#41
razeak
Bronze Good Trader Has Written 9 Reviews

I hope they get to the point they can sustain themselves.

That being said, I just couldn't get into it before I bailed on basketball completely.

It's like XFL. It's not the top tier.

MMA seems better off though. I don't care if I'm watching a man or woman.
11-May-24 4:45am
#42
DrizzDrizzDrizz
Double Gold Good Trader Global Trader - willing to trade internationally Croatia

I watched a bit of it on the app (it was free, not even registration.needed, which was surprising but nice) the other day, preseason game Fever against Atlanta

And i gotta say the standard of play has improved A LOT since the early WNBA days (i remember watching that inaugural season…didn’t watch too much since tbh)
i was pretty impressed
17-Jun-24 1:45am
#43
Chad
GameTZ Subscriber Double Gold Good Trader

https://sports.yahoo...

So there is an interesting article from Washington Post about WNBA and ratings and finances and a bunch of crap. So apparently the WNBA only receives 40% of revenue generated that goes to teams and eventually player salaries. NBA owns 40% and 20% goes to outside investors. And because of this ownership, WNBA does not negotiate its own TV deals. Those are negotiated by NBA who then decides what portion of that goes to WNBA (of which 40% comes back to NBA). Now, I always knew the NBA has as much ownership in WNBA as the teams did, but I assumed that the NBA would only receive a share of the profits. Instead, it receives a share of revenue. As do outside investors.

So this explains a whole lot as far as how the WNBA can "lose" money every year but still be profitable and continue to exist year after year with the NBA being perfectly happy.

So last year the WNBA generated $200M in revenue. $80M is owed to WNBA, $80M is owed to NBA, $40M is owed to investors.
League wide expenses haven't been disclosed. Based on 5 minutes of google fu, most pro sports leagues have about 40-50% administrative (non-player salary expenses) costs on league revenue. GMs, Coaches, scouts, trainers, marketing, arenas, arena staff, travel, health care, etc. etc.
So if you use 40% of total revenue that's $80M in administrative expenses. Have $15Min player salaries. So really
WNBA gets $95M, NBA gets $65M, outside investors get $40M since you can't screw them over.
NBA claims "WNBA lost $15M last year." And by book keeping, sure, they did. But reality is they generated $65M in revenue for NBA for existing that the NBA would not have if they did not exist. So is it really a loss? So naturally NBA is fine with that because they are $65M richer, just not $80M richer. They want the WNBA to grow. Because as it scales their share gets bigger.

No new media deals this year but ticket and merch sales are bonkers along with new league sponsors and stuff like that. So I bet 2024 there will be ~$300M in revenue. There has been an obvious media blitz this year of WNBA, charter flights all season, so maybe 50% of revenue (bigger arenas and stuff as well) so $150M in administrative expenses. Another $16M in player salaries.
Outside investors $60M, they get their share.
WNBA - Supposed to receive $120M, but get $166M.
NBA - Supposed to receive $120M but gets $74M. On paper this is a record loss of $46M. No actual losses, in fact a $74M gain, a $9M gain from last year, but missed its target by $46M. Guess the WNBA needs the NBA to survive.

So that's all alleged to 2 sources. But if true, on paper the WNBA will never make a profit. Every other league I can find, the teams own the league. So they don't have huge portions of revenue leaving. This is likely a tactic that will be used to push down player salaries and turn people against what is likely to be a very contentions labor negotiations. The NBA and WNBA will cry "50% is impossible! The WNBA lost $50M last year! How can a league that losses $50M possibly pay the players 50% of revenue generated?"

I used to fall for it. I assumed owners receive a share of profit, not revenue. If I own stocks in a company that pay dividends, it is just a fraction of profit. Why would a sports league be any different? And I thought when the NBA said it "lost money" it was giving cash subsidies to the WNBA, and think most people would.

Do you think the WNBA will do anything to capitalize on the NCAAW momentum?